Let’s take a look at closer look at the important numbers:
Predicted SSN: 37.1 — Actual: 84.1
Predicted SFI: 84.5 — Actual: 130.6
Combine the above in graph format (courtesy SolarHam.com) then we really are way ahead of any predictions.
We are almost at double SFI (April ’21 to April ’22) and over three times SSN same period.
I wonder where we will be 12 months from now ?
Dragan, check out the comparison graph: http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png
It needs updating of the last few months, but right now we are at 30 months after the minimum, sitting at around 60-80 monthly averages, which is still almost exactly tracking the cycle 24 curve, maybe insignificantly higher, but nothing to write home about. Compare to the last semi-decent cycle 23 that had us at around 120 at the same point.
Another graph, this one of similar cycles: http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png
WA7AA: I am not sure I follow your logic but based on the current situation/data, Cycle 25 is already way much better than 24. A month or so ago I worked VR2 on 10m long path. Never in my HAM radio life (4 solar cycles) 10m has these kind of openings so early in the cycle. First indications are this solar cycle will be much much better than the previous one. I hope the upward trend continues.
73 Dragan K0AP
Looks to me like it will be bigger than originally forecast but not necessarily double. Many cycles move quickly and then double peak unlike the smoothed curve of the NOAA forecast. Its good news however you slice it. DX on!
Ed N1UR
It’s amazing that NOAA is still sticking with their ridiculous “forecast” so far into this cycle. Again, their graph contains three fundamental mistakes:
1. It places the start of the cycle 25 several months after it actually occurred
2. It doesn’t account for the dual peak nature of previous cycles with a steep rise and a plateau between peaks
3. Most egregiously, it still insist that somehow cycle 25 will be 14 years long (unlike any before), skewing the rise/fall
Meanwhile, over in real life however, cycle 25 still follows cycle 24’s curve almost identically, which means they will continue to be identical, much like most predictions said before 25 began. If 25 was going to be any better than 24, by now we should have seen monthly sunspot values consistently in the 100-140 range. We’re nowhere near. I never wished I was more wrong in my life, btw, but you know what they say about wishes…